[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171619
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-171845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...GA...TN...VA...NC...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171619Z - 171845Z

STORMS ERUPTING FROM THE TN VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HIGH WINDS.
RANDOM/SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THIS PULSE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WATCH.

STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DEPICTED MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000
J/KG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVOLVING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S F. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 20-25KT. GIVEN THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FEATURES...A
FEW STORMS COULD ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AND THE
SHORT-LIVED/RANDOM NATURE OF THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT SPREAD ACROSS
SUCH A LARGE AREA...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 07/17/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX...

34278566 35498473 36548363 37118224 37408060 37377975
37057971 36448026 35408120 34308189 33858270 33668343
33758467 33828527

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