[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180622
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-181215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CST THU JAN 18 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE GA THROUGH UPSTATE/MIDLAND SC INTO PARTS OF
NC

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 180622Z - 181215Z

...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM FAR NE GA THROUGH THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SLEET WILL MIX IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
12Z...

LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING RETURNS ACROSS NRN AL. THIS IS
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG STALLED 850 MB
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM NRN MS THROUGH NRN GA.
 NO IMPULSE IS EASILY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM...BUT MID LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SWRN MN/WRN IA. BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS
/GFS AND NAM/ SHOW AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION AND CORRESPONDING
PRECIPITATION BY 12Z AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER
GA.

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS NE GA...WITH WET BULB
TEMPS MAINLY BELOW 32 DEGREES. EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WILL
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL TO FREEZING ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. NCEP
SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FZRA RAIN WILL BE
BETWEEN 09-15Z IN A CORRIDOR FROM GRD/CAE/CLT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS WRN NC INDICATE THAT PCPN MAY BEGIN AS SLEET AND CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAA INCREASES.

..TAYLOR.. 01/18/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

34097979 33128202 33978367 34948410 35488384 36208197
36248073 35797925 35097923



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