[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241635
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NW LA...SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH

VALID 241635Z - 241830Z

TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS WW 30.  TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS NORTH/EAST OF WW.

CORE OF INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC...WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND
VWP DATA INDICATE 850 FLOW IS NOW AROUND 60-70 KTS... CONTRIBUTING
TO EXTREMELY LARGE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...EVEN AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE EL DORADO
AREA...ARE NOW AROUND 70F...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH
THE LOWER/MID 60S.  WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS...TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING.  ISOLATED STRONG OR
VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME IN INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS NEAR/ NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT THROUGH EL DORADO AND PINE BLUFF AR.

..KERR.. 02/24/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

35209378 36129330 36589287 37049137 36809013 35748939
33659014 32519126 32019228 31719377 31959470 32569476



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