[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131703
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN AL...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131703Z - 131830Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SERN
AR INTO NRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WELL DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY CENTER/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS SERN AR LATE THIS MORNING.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE AIDING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
BENEATH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AS A RESULT...LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS SERN AR/ERN LA INTO MS WHERE
SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW AOA 7C/KM.  LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION
ALONG SFC FRONT NEAR PBF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER VORT.  SHEAR
PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED DISCRETE STRUCTURES...OR SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOW END SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

..DARROW.. 02/13/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34699098 35168845 34468728 33248860 33699144

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