[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231816
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KY...ERN TN...FAR WRN NC/SWRN VA...NWRN
SC...AND FAR NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231816Z - 232045Z

SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MAY POSE ISOLATED SVR WIND
DMGG. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT AND WEAK TO LITTLE
ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN OHIO INTO
ERN TN...AND DEMARCATES THE DEEPER MIXED AIRMASS /LOWER DEWPTS/ OVER
CENTRAL TN/KY AND SRN IND...TO THE HIGHER DEWPTS OVER ERN KY/TN.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN/SRN SLOPES OF THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS OVER FAR WRN NC...FAR SWRN VA SWWD INTO NRN GA.
DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS
/OWING TO PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS/ MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS. LACK OF
STRONGER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A WW. GIVEN NELY MID LEVEL
FLOW...TSTMS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY SSWWD THROUGH WRN NC...NWRN SC
AND FAR NRN GA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/23/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

34288281 35168182 36098127 36488131 36638214 36658268
36698324 36608370 36488398 36358419 36048451 35778461
35418461 35048461 34778454 34468430 34348416 34248390



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