[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211742
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-211945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...WRN/CENTRAL NC...SRN/WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211742Z - 211945Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER ERN KY WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BEGIN POSING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG
WIND THREAT OVER NERN TN...WRN/CENTRAL NC AND WRN/SRN VA WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV LOCATED OVER ERN KY. AHEAD OF THIS
MCV...MID LEVEL FLOW WAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...WITH RECENT MORRISTOWN VWP DATA INDICATING AROUND 40
KTS AT 6 KM. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED ORGANIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINES ACROSS SRN VA AND WRN
NC/FAR ERN TN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS
MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DESPITE
RELATIVELY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
FAIRLY LARGE...30-35 DEG...T/TD SPREADS WILL SUPPORT DMGG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED LINES/CELLS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

38047966 37737997 37298071 37158127 37098180 36968218
36588269 35748333 35338287 35238122 35298057 35498007
35837938 36177907 36347881 36607822 37067794 37627797
37977822 38227869 38107917



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