[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/NRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241813Z - 241945Z

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION FOR LIMITED TORNADO THREAT.

LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST N OF
THE OH RIVER.  DAYTIME HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS EXPECT A
SLOW/CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
BE A RELATIVE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW IN GENERAL.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  WHILE WW IS NOT IMMINENT...AN INCREASE IN
STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

38019050 37648877 37648708 38008629 37358528 36608522
35958682 36078980 36629081



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