[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031917
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-032115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...MUCH OF AR...SERN OK AND NERN
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031917Z - 032115Z

SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM NRN AR
INTO NERN TX BETWEEN 21-23Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY FOR SOME PART OF THIS AREA BY
21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AR/MO BOOTHEEL.

18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND FWD INDICATED MODEST LOW LEVEL COOLING
/DUE TO VERTICAL MOTION/ HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE 12Z. MODERATE
ASCENT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING CINH AND RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT LONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NCENTRAL
AR MAY SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WEAKER LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE IN NERN TX
INITIALLY. STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NRN/CENTRAL
AR SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...WITH A GRADUAL LINEAR
TRANSITION IN THE STORM MODE.

..CROSBIE.. 04/03/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33639646 33019722 32749759 32409712 32239652 32029588
31959536 32749453 33579254 34439140 35489006 36308946
36429241 36429364 34779512



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