[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232325
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH SERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 798...

VALID 232325Z - 240030Z

PRIMARY THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
REMAINDER OF WW 800 AS WELL AS ERN KY. ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS. WW 798 WILL EXPIRE AT 01Z...AND A
REPLACEMENT WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

SQUALL LINE FROM ERN KY SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN IS MOVING EWD AT 30
TO 40 KT. ACTIVITY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH 35 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 200
TO 250 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN
LIMITED IN LARGE PART BY DOMINANT LINEAR MODE WITH COLD POOL. STORMS
WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS
THEY CONTINUE EWD...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL
AFTER SUNSET. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
WITH THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER... A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

33689003 35148678 35048588 34438577 33388962



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