[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231837
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-232000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MIDDLE TN...ERN AR...NWRN AL...NRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 797...

VALID 231837Z - 232000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS NOW OVER NWRN TN AND AR IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EWD OUT OF WW 797 AND ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  SVR POTENTIAL
WOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...AND WITH ANY
DISCRETE/PERSISTENT STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS NRN MID TN AND ERN TN.  SFC FLOW HAS VEERED OVER MOST OF
WARM SECTOR DURING PAST FEW HOURS...GIVEN PREDOMINANCE OF PRESSURE
FALLS FARTHER NE...N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  RESULTANT SWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...MINIMIZING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE.  OKO PROFILER MODIFIED WITH PRE-STORM
MEM SFC WIND REFLECTS THIS TREND WELL. LONG AND NEARLY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH IS EVIDENT THROUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...AND ONLY 20-25 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FARTHER
W -- CLOSER TO MCS -- HOWEVER CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR. MAIN EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG PROGRESSIVE
INFLECTION POINT IN THIS COMPLEX -- INITIALLY EVIDENT WSW MEM OVER
AR...AND FCST TO PROPAGATE ENEWD THROUGH MEM AREA AND INVOF TN/MS
BORDER.  SVR POTENTIAL MAY PEAK LOCALLY AT INFLECTION...WHERE LOW
LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.  OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTION -- FORMING GRADUALLY ATOP HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS OVER MS...MAY MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT.

..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33779222 34029245 34299220 34979139 35598967 36168866
36468828 36538804 36288745 36048702 35358699 34828748
33858894 33449010 33579150



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