[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231235
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-231400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NE TX...CNTRL/ERN AR...WRN TN...SE MO...SRN
IN...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231235Z - 231400Z

NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 796 BY AROUND 14Z.

ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...FOR THE MOST PART
UNAFFECTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  WEAKLY CAPPED MIXED LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK
...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  AIDED
BY UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SQUALL LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70
KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...POSSIBLY NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 17-18Z.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SQUALL LINE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE IT INTERSECTS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

..KERR.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

36269109 36949027 37908893 37448737 35358923 33839131
33099300 33069381 33059494 33569497 34709338



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