[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230910
WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SE MO...KY...NRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 795...

VALID 230910Z - 231115Z

CONTINUE WW.  RISK FOR TORNADOES COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTION OF WW BY AROUND 12Z.

BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS SUPPORTING IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT FEW
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTIONS OF WATCH...WHERE STALLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHIFT NORTHWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS PRIMARY DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG UPSTREAM
FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  RETURN OF 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF
EVOLVING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  THIS IS WHERE RISK
OF TORNADOES IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITHIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

..KERR.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36949297 37439110 37438947 37338813 37818631 38428409
38298232 37258256 36118452 36138707 35718940 35539256



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