[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221811
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-221945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND
NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221811Z - 221945Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DUAL WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH NRN
MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO SEWD INTO WRN TN /NE OF DYR/
AND THEN INTO N-CNTRL AL.  THE SRN BAROCLINIC ZONE...NOT AS WELL
DEFINED...EXISTED FROM CNTRL AR TO NEAR TUP.  TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
ALONG ERN FRINGE OF LLJ FROM NRN MS/NWRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.

CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WITH 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND 0-1 KM
SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2.  GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT
LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34118972 35118919 35908901 36308887 36408836 36158761
35798707 35138682 34238704 33728763 33428806 33338848
33448918 33698955

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net