[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272202
KYZ000-TNZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN MIDDLE TN...SCENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272202Z - 280000Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 35 KTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
FAR NRN MIDDLE TN AND SCENTRAL KY THROUGH 00Z. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR MAY OVERCOME GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY TO AID THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IN THE NXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH THESE TSTMS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL AND TEMPORAL SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB SFC LOW CENTER OVER FAR WRN KY /EAST
OF PAH/. PER VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY...A NARROW AXIS OF SUNSHINE/HEATING
HAS DEVELOPED /SOUTH OF A SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
ACROSS SCENTRAL KY AND NRN MIDDLE TN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS. IN
THIS AXIS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S. DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S /HIGHER THAN MODEL FCST/ ARE SUPPORTING MUCAPES FROM
750-1000 J/KG. SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS LAST HR ALONG THE
WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF THE VORT LOBE EXIST.
RECENT VWP DATA FROM HPX AND OHX RADARS INDICATED MODERATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2/. WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...THERE WILL EXIST A
SMALL AREAL AND SHORT TEMPORAL THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/WEAK TORNADO
OR TWO WITH THESE STORMS AS MOVE ACROSS SCENTRAL KY/FAR NRN MIDDLE
TN THROUGH 00Z. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
DEFINITIVE TORNADO THREAT AND NEED FOR A WATCH.

..CROSBIE.. 10/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36098631 36578592 37018602 37248625 37278679 37258714
37138750 36868774 36468766 36088717



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