[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151846
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-152045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151846Z - 152045Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT
1-3 HRS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 990 SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR MEM. AN AXIS
OF MID LEVEL DRYING ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
HAS SUPPORTED ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW MODEST SFC HEATING OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN TN AND NERN MS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 F. INSPECTIONS OF THE LAST
SEVERAL HRS OF TAMDAR DATA FROM AIRCRAFT APPROACHING/LEAVING KMEM
INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD BEEN VERY
PRONOUNCED A FEW HRS AGO OVER SWRN TN/NRN MS...WAS BEGINNING TO
ERODE BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ELIMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS MID LEVEL INVERSION. ALONG
WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL HEATING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES OVER NERN MS
AND PORTIONS OF WRN TN ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD/WARM FRONTS LOCATED OVER
NERN MS AND WRN TN IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1
KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/ JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND ALONG WARM
FRONT OVER WRN TN MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. BUT THE MAIN SVR
THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.

..CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

35868801 35798894 35718940 35459001 34708983 34308944
34328850 34468815 34918801 35678790

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