[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151314
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-151515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LA...EXTREME SERN AND E-CENTRAL AR...SWRN
TN...WRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 853...855...856...

VALID 151314Z - 151515Z

BKN BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 1245Z FROM RAPIDES/AVOYELLES
PARISHES LA NNEWD THROUGH PANOLA COUNTY MS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
MS DELTA REGION...FROM AR AND CENTRAL/NERN LA INTO WRN/CENTRAL MS.
DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES FROM SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WILL BE MAIN
THREATS.

INITIALLY SEPARATE ARC OF TSTMS -- FORWARD PROPAGATING ALONG ITS OWN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- EXTENDS FROM HAYWOOD/FAYETTE COUNTIES TN SWWD TO
COAHOMA COUNTY MS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE WITH NRN PORTION OF
LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND TO ITS S...THROUGH 14Z. COMBINED LINE OF
TSTMS THEN WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS WW 856...WRN/NRN
PORTIONS WW 853...AND MUCH OF WW 855...THROUGH 16Z.

SFC THETAE AND SBCAPE EACH INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT IN PROSPECTIVE
INFLOW REGION. THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD-MOVING WARM
FRONT...ACROSS CENTRAL MS...HAS BECOME DIFFUSE IN WAKE OF PASSAGE OF
EARLIER TSTMS NOW IN AL.  HOWEVER...SLY-SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED THETAE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT AIR MASS
RECOVERY FOR ACTIVITY TO REMAIN SFC BASED AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL MS.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED 12Z JAN RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL MS SWWD...FADING
TO AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS OVER SWRN TN AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THOUGH SFC FLOW MAY VEER SLIGHTLY AS ISALLOBARIC FORCING SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS AR/TN...STRONG VERTICAL BULK SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS STILL ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY FOR ANY
RIGHTWARD-DEVIANT STORMS.  0-1 KM SRH AT LEAST 400 J/KG WILL REMAIN
COMMON IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 50-60 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29899317 31019226 32959074 34419038 35208917 35148816
34978807 32608841 31158994 29579147

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