[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150829
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-151030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME
E-CENTRAL OK...NRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851...

VALID 150829Z - 151030Z

SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER WW AND MAY BE EXPANDING EWD.
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD...NE OF STG SFC CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED INVOF SRN PORTIONS OK/AR
BORDER.  ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ALSO IS EXPECTED OVER NRN PORTION
OF WW BEHIND PRESENT/EXTENSIVE RAIN AREA...LEADING TO INCREASE IN
SVR THREAT WITH TIME ACROSS PORTIONS NRN AR.

AS SFC LOW MOVES GENERALLY EWD OVER SRN AR DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...SIMILAR SVR POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND/DEVELOP EWD FROM WW ACROSS
MS RIVER...OVER PORTIONS NRN MS AND PERHAPS SWRN TN.  ANOTHER WW MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  MEANWHILE STG-SVR TSTMS OVER
EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...W OF FSM...SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW.  MAIN
THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A FEW STG GUSTS MAY
PENETRATE STABLE LAYER AND REACH SFC.

DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED IN RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
AIR...FROM LOW ENEWD THEN EWD OVER SERN AR...NRN MS AND NRN AL...IN
REGION OF MAXIMIZED SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA.
PRIND TSTMS INVOF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE
SFC...HOWEVER...WITH SBCAPE REMAINING ALONG AND S OF MARINE WARM
FRONT NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN LA...SWRN MS AND FL PANHANDLE.  6Z LZK
RAOB APPEARS REASONABLY REPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS NOW PRESENT FROM
LIT AREA EWD ACROSS NWRN MS...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT IN SUPPORT OF SVR POTENTIAL.
TIME SERIES OF RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIDLEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS AR THROUGH 12Z.
THIS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS STEADY
OR SLIGHTLY INCREASES.

..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

34839484 35649442 36109327 35839103 35268952 34298842
33988891 34169059 34409108 34579133 34439268 34769300
34719440



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