[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150532
MSZ000-LAZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...AR...MS...LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 850...851...

VALID 150532Z - 150630Z

SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MODESTLY DEEP SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR DURANT OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
SCNTRL AR. VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER... SITUATION NOW
APPEARS TO BE CHANGING QUICKLY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION
WHERE INTENSE FORCING IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NERN TX ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN LA. RESULTANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT COULD SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED
MESOCYCLONES...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN A BAND OF MOIST
CONFLUENCE FROM SRN LA INTO MS. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS POWERFUL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NORTH TX
AND 60-70KT MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EXPECT TORNADO... HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34919507 35899377 35859196 35279000 32198869 30649005
30189069 30189246 31499321 32429465 32639572 33209614
34039612

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