[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150315
MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TN AND NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150315Z - 150515Z

DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM ERN AR TO WRN TN AND NRN MS AS A POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO IMMINENT
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR...ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AREAS OF ERN AR...AS WELL AS NRN MS AND WRN TN...LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. BASED ON LITTLE ROCK EVENING SOUNDING AND
LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA...THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THERMODYNAMIC
AND KINEMATIC REGIME IS....HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO UNDERGO POTENTIALLY
RAPID CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS OK AND DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS THE RED RIVER/TXK AREAS. WHILE ONGOING AND IMMEDIATE FUTURE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND POSE PRIMARILY A HAIL
THREAT...DYNAMIC BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...A SEVERE
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL POTENTIAL FROM INCREASING ELEVATED
SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WATCH BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34189119 34469175 34769229 35149242 36029205 36139080
36008972 35238854 34738821 33768837 32948873 32748967
32939069



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