[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 110206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110205
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR / MO BOOTHEEL / WRN TN / NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 845...847...

VALID 110205Z - 110330Z

ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS THEY APPROACH
THE MS RIVER.

AS OF 0150Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INTENSE TSTMS /SOME
SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OVER GREENE AND DUNKLIN COUNTIES
IN NERN AR...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER PRAIRIE AND
MONROE COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL AR MOVING GENERALLY 270/30 KT.  11/00Z
LIT SOUNDING INDICATED A RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEEP...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER...MLCAPE OF AROUND
2000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SHOW THAT THIS INSTABILITY AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD TO JUST W
OF THIS MS RIVER.  MOREOVER...30-40 KT SWLY LLJ HAS PERSISTED ALONG
THE MS RIVER AND THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH CURRENT MEM VWP INDICATING
0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 300 M2/S2.

GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  THIS THREAT SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE E OF THE MS RIVER INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

..MEAD.. 11/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34309189 36139056 36529009 36588962 36148891 34598994
33909042 33979146



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