[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102329
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-110100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL / MO BOOTHEEL / WRN KY INTO WRN TN AND NERN
AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102329Z - 110100Z

LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM FAM TO SE OF UNO
ARE FORECAST TO REACH ERN EDGE OF WW 845 BETWEEN 0000-0030Z AND A
NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS OF 2315Z
FROM FAM TO SWWD INTO CNTRL AR...FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND PERHAPS WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SERN MO AND
CNTRL/ERN AR.  PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP FIELDS SHOW THAT PRIMARY LLJ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM ERN AR INTO CNTRL IND WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE NEWD
TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS THROUGH
THE MID S INTO CNTRL MS VALLEY.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONT...EXPECT THAT
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF THE LLJ ALONG THE MS RIVER IS RESULTING IN
MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --REF. CURRENT NQA/PAH VWPS--
ALONG NWD-DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS...INDICATING A CONTINUING
THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 11/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

37928962 38278922 38488868 38338802 37768789 36008895
35088999 35009067 35519096

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