[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 212013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212012
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 212012Z - 212145Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST TO EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO EXTREME
NERN AL/NWRN GA. PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY EAST TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP WAS INDICATING THICKENING CU FIELD
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WRN TN. COMBINATION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AREA...AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING
INHIBITION. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES ESEWD
FROM MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AN
INCREASING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. WNWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SPREADING
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

34638694 34908820 35218991 36128954 35998844 35828720
35638640 34908548 34628565 34398606

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