[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210432
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/WRN-SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN
GA/FAR WRN AND FAR SERN NC/NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...371...

VALID 210432Z - 210600Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06-07Z ACROSS
WW/S 370 AND 371.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AIDING ASCENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS KY AT 04Z PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH ACCOMPANYING 50 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET
NOW LOCATED OVER SWRN KY-ERN TN.  IN ADDITION...A 25-35 KT WLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL IS MAINTAINING A WAA
REGIME FOR ASCENT/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/N OF QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN AR TO SRN TN/NRN GA.
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS ERN PARTS OF
WW 370 AND ALL OF WW 371.  FARTHER W...NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO INTO WRN PART OF WW 370...BEING FED BY
RESERVOIR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER NRN AR/ERN OK.

FARTHER E...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING KY
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN SC/SERN NC. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34538788 35449013 36619015 36858959 35708611 35628421
34998311 34927984 34667792 33957847 33577923 33788165
34008360 34208617

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