[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202245
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA/NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...368...

VALID 202245Z - 210015Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW/S 366 AND 368.

MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR
SERN VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TO ALONG THE BORDER REGION OF SW
NC/SC AND NC/GA.  THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED WNWWD AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE/WRN TN TO FAR NRN AR.  MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING ALONG/IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND INTO SC COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS
BEING THE FAVORED STORM TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR ERN PARTS OF WW 366 /SOUTH CENTRAL NC/ AND ACROSS MUCH OF
368...WHILE NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER SRN MIDDLE TN IN
THE WRN PART OF WW 366.  THIS NEW ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES MIDDLE TN...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TRACKING
SEWD INTO SERN TN/NRN GA.  LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

WWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO WRN TN IS MORE CONDITIONAL..
GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE AND STRONGER
INHIBITION LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IN
ADDITION...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF WRN TN INTO
AR MAY MINIMIZE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

AIR MASS ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL/ERN NC IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST N OF WW 368 WITH RIGHT-MOVING
STORMS TENDING TO TRACK SEWD ALONG/NEAR THE NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 368.
THUS...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS NC.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

35979063 36008866 36048709 36288647 36088416 35628137
35728019 35687799 34907739 34227735 33547793 31848059
33918198 34598606 34988863 35069065 35579093

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