[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181951
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NC .. NRN SC .. EXTREME SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181951Z - 182145Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN NC...SOUTHERN VA AND EASTERN TN WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM IN AND OH. MARGINAL CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS WITH A FEW STORMS. THE FORCING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

CURRENT RUC SHORT RANGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES AROUND
750 J/KG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF 40 KT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 850 TO 500MB
OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING DO NOT
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DESPITE
APPROACH OF MIDWEST TROUGH...SO SURFACE BASED CAPE IS UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM CURRENT LEVELS. IN FACT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THAT A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION.  SPC HAIL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MAXIMUM SIZES AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN
STRONGER STORMS.

..SCHNEIDER.. 05/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

36937763 36597677 36147677 35637739 35227789 34957851
34717898 34447994 34168089 33968177 34158236 34598307
34988349 35558336 36158215 36518134 36738031 37017880



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net