[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111719
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-111915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN/CENTRAL
KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111719Z - 111915Z

SVR TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE PSBL.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BECAUSE OF
1. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL ASCENT/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN MO...REMOVING INTENSE
MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER PRESENT IN MORNING SOUNDING AT BNA...AND
2. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING RELATED TO STRONG SFC
INSOLATION...WHICH IS OFFSETTING POSTFRONTAL CAA ENOUGH TO BOOST SFC
TEMPS INTO MID 60S F.

WITH GENERALLY WLY SFC WINDS OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...CONVERGENCE
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...CINH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING..RESULTING IN MLCAPES 100-400 J/KG.
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT...ENHANCING DCAPE AND
SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF ANY STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND
HAILSTONES GENERATED ALOFT AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH SUBCLOUD LAYER.
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MRGL BUOYANCY AND SFC LIFT.  VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WITH 0-6 KM
SHEARS INCREASING TO 50-60 KT AS MID-UPPER SPEED MAX APCHS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

37008911 38418924 39178902 39618838 39518755 38408590
36938543 35528638 35148744 35578812 36628901

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