[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091955
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 091955Z - 092200Z

A PERSISTENT LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN ATTM. A
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD
INTO ERN TN AND NRN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY
REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT WW ISSUANCE FURTHER EAST.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE
MCS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL. THIS SHOULD FUEL THE MCS WITH THE STRONGEST
PART OF THE MCS LIKELY TURNING SEWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCS IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF A
MID-LEVEL JET BUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET OVER SRN MO. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ESPECIALLY
AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO ERN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN AL...AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXISTS FROM THE TUPELO MS AREA NEWD TO THE HUNTSVILLE AL VICINITY.
AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THIS CORRIDOR...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LINE TO
BE MAINTAINED SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

..BROYLES.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

33818774 34348839 35158807 36488695 36438560 35758530
33668686

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