[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031746
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/NRN AR/PARTS OF SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...NWRN
TN/SERN KS AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 031746Z - 031845Z

WW WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS SRN MO...AND
THEN WSWWD INTO SERN KS/NERN OK.

REGIONAL RADARS/MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVE MCS
HAD MOVED EWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WITH THIS BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MO /DENT COUNTY/...THEN WWD
INTO SERN KS INTERSECTING THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT VICINITY ICT.  AIR
MASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SRN MO/NRN AR HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG/...GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 70S HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP VICINITY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF LEFT OVER MCV...NOW
LOCATED OVER WRN AR...MAY AID IN SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR /30-35 KT/ SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS.. 05/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

38038980 37138839 35998903 35808980 35889274 35949540
37219583 37569474 37609168

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