[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011922
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SRN/SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR
WRN KY...FAR NWRN TN...FAR NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011922Z - 012015Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MO...THEN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN MO.  HAIL/STRONG
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

18Z MESOSCALE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN
IL SWWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL-SWRN MO INTO NERN-CENTRAL OK.  LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH FROM
EAST CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL MO NEAR TBN TO SUPPORT SURFACE
BASED STORMS.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION
ATTM PER TRENDS IN WIND PROFILER DATA/12-18Z SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING THUS FAR.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER
CENTRAL KS/NRN OK...AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN CAP PER 18Z SGF SOUNDING...WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED.  MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37539211 38129135 38859083 38898934 36728809 35908885
36499209 36489353 37099377

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