[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181738
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...NERN AR...WRN KY...NWRN
TN...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181738Z - 181915Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...FROM SERN MO TO SWRN IND...THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION WAS INCREASING ACROSS WARM SECTOR FROM NRN AR/SERN MO
INTO SRN IL ATTM. HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ONGOING DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES MODESTLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE GENERALLY LIMITED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30KT...DEGREE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY APPEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 06/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

35679180 36349163 36969138 37689122 38659123 39319135
39979078 40118943 39808805 39338712 39008692 37838686
37148721 36658756 36448841 36098926 35759003 35549111
35499132

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