[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041559
WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-041800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 041559Z - 041800Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO APPARENT MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF A BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THIS REGION.  LIFT/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ENHANCED BY
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION AND WEAK WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW
/FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY.  AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE INCREASES THROUGH THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
 THOUGH WEAK CAPE PROBABLY WILL LIMIT VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS...
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED REGIME
BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS.

..KERR.. 06/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

38768446 38808245 38828098 38508020 37627998 37058047
36218115 34968286 34538537 34838695 35558853 36418855
36448730 36838609 36598499 37238377 37888388

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