[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011623
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-011800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT THU JUN 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...SRN OH...KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011623Z - 011800Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP
TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY.  ONGOING CONVECTION EAST OF THE
EVANSVILLE AREA APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND WESTERN/ NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY.

A GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND RELATIVELY SMALL
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS COLD POOL SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMAL.  BUT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.

..KERR.. 06/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

38298666 38898593 39118490 38818370 37928298 37268332
36918458 36738576 36708669 36678715 36638748 36678795
37128786 37538717

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