[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301910
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/FAR WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN
AR/NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 301910Z - 302145Z

AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MO/FAR WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN AR/NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL.
A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IN SPITE OF LITTLE OR NO BACKGROUND ASCENT...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE IN PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY LOW LFCS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD PORTION OF THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL FEATURES MAY PROVIDE SOME
FOCUS...1) PERIPHERAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE REMNANT MCV/LOW LEVEL
COOL BUBBLE CENTERED NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL AND 2) RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL
INTO WESTERN TN...WHERE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS OF 19Z.

AMPLE INSOLATION COUPLED WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IS CONTRIBUTING
TO A PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPES LIKELY PER ADJUSTED 12Z
REGIONAL RAOBS/LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY/DRY AIR ALOFT...WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
SPEEDS/VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC DAMAGING
DOWNBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CORES...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

..GUYER.. 07/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38129214 38349161 38119062 37619036 37158981 37848882
35138740 32658725 33588983 34539204 35209264 36339282
37499260

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