[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 292018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292018
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR
WESTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 292018Z - 292215Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/FAR
WESTERN KY.

ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TENNESSEE VALLEY MCV...MID AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ROUGHLY SOUTH-NORTH ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER INTO EASTERN MO/FAR WESTERN IL. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM NEAR QUINCY IL...TO NEAR ST
LOUIS...TO AROUND FARMINGTON MO. THE AIRMASS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR IS
VERY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS
3000-4000 J/KG PER ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
IS RATHER WEAK /20 KTS OR LESS PER ST LOUIS AND PADUCAH WSR-88D
VWPS/...THE HIGH INSTABILITY REGIME AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS
HAIL.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38759190 40199144 40039050 37508872 36538901 35419084
36919178

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