[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-211845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN IL...SERN MO...SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630...

VALID 211722Z - 211845Z

WW MAY BE REPLACED TO COVER PORTIONS KY AND SWRN INDIANA...IN
ADDITION TO SRN IL AND SERN MO.

SVR TSTM CLUSTER...WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL FROM COU ACROSS STL AREA...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS SRN IL. MAIN THREAT IS DERECHO EVENT CONTAINING
CONCENTRATED/PROLONGED SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND. EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES ALSO MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO...AND HAIL REMAINS
POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD 35-40 KT -- INCLUDING SOME
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT RELATED TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THAT
WILL REINFORCE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL.  FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 70S F
AND CONTINUED INSOLATION CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES NEAR 5000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MRGL BUT FCST TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION FARTHER DOWNSHEAR MAY PERMIT THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE
ACROSS LARGE SEGMENT OF KY AS WELL BEFORE WEAKENING.

MEANWHILE...NRN PORTION WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E BEHIND MCS.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS EVOLVE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM
ACTIVITY PROGGED BEHIND ONGOING SVR CLUSTER...THESE PROGS DO NOT
RESOLVE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...AND THEREFORE DO NOT ADEQUATELY
ACCOUNT FOR EFFECTS OF ASSOCIATED COLD POOL RELATED STABILIZATION.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO ALONG COMBINED GUST
FRONT AND COLD FRONT -- AND MAY ALSO BECOME SVR AS THEY MOVE TOWARD
CGI-PAH CORRIDOR.

..EDWARDS.. 07/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

37709108 38108966 38728934 38948847 38578751 37998464
37208449 36578590 36788824

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net