[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141811
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-142015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN AND NRN NC THROUGH SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141811Z - 142015Z

WET MICRO BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN TN...SRN VA AND NRN NC AS WELL AS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
WARM AIR IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MODEST WLY DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL AND PULSE STORM TYPES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
90S...RESULTING IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..DIAL.. 07/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...

35158526 36338387 37148201 37307950 36527744 36057803
35938024 35208371 34928457

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