[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042245
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-050115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WV...VA...NWRN NC...MD...DE...SRN
NJ...EXTREME SERN NY...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 042245Z - 050115Z

BROKEN LINE OF ROBUST STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM ERN LONG
ISLAND/SERN CT...AND ALSO FROM SRN NJ WSWWD ACROSS DELMARVA. STORMS
ALONG THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST CELLS ACROSS SRN NJ AND DELMARVA AREAS
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AIR MASS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WATCH 582...FROM THE SRN PA BORDER
SWD ACROSS NRN VA...HAS BEEN OVERTURNED AND STABILIZED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION. BUT A LARGE CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/ERN KY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE WRN
EDGE OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS CONVECTION...FROM ERN KY ACROSS SRN WV AND INTO SWRN/SRN
VA/NWRN NC...WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LOCALLY INTENSE MULTICELL
CONVECTION WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
POSSIBLE. STORM MERGERS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION IN VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATES THROUGH THE EVENING.

A TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM ACTIVITY GIVEN
OVERALL RANDOM/BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND FORCING ENVIRONMENT.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

41727214 40817240 39267440 38457506 37827615 37257765
35998067 35878124 36988251 38248324 38678140 39118062
39497808 39367731 39397674 40257384

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net