[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111222
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-111615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...NWRN NC...ERN KY...CNTRL AND SRN WV...WRN
THROUGH NRN VA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 111222Z - 111615Z

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING FROM PARTS OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WRN VA WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM .5 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING ENEWD
THROUGH ERN TN AND EXTREME ERN KY IN WAKE OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF
FORMATION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA. AN AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED PATCHY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS FROM
NERN TN...WRN NC INTO WV AND SWRN VA. THE MID DRY SLOT MAY
TEMPORARILY LIMIT DENDRITIC GROWTH AND OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES EARLY
THIS MORNING AS IT SPREADS NEWD. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED EXIT
REGION OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING UPPER JET MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND SNOWFALL RATES
WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KY THROUGH SRN WV AND
WRN AND NRN VA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RATES UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 02/11/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

39127745 38137761 37147982 36058217 36038380 36668462
37478439 38638251 39387933



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