[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 102204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102204
TNZ000-KYZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-110300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 102204Z - 110300Z

...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL
APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR...

LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE/HEAVY
SNOW DEVELOPING EWD FROM ERN AR/WRN TN INTO MIDDLE TN/SRN KY. SNOW
RATES ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MEMPHIS
AREA...WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER THE PAST 2-3
HOURS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW ARE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS MIDDLE
TN AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH
WET BULB TEMPS ACROSS MIDDLE TN ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.

LATEST MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MESOSCALE EFFECTS OF THE HEAVY
BANDS OF SNOW VERY WELL. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ACROSS MIDDLE TN MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY OPERATIONAL
MODELS.

..TAYLOR.. 02/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

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