[BNAWX] Short Term Forecast

[EMWIN Server]

FPUS74 KOHX 042134
NOWOHX

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CST MON DEC 4 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-050030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND CITY...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...
CARTHAGE...CELINA...CENTERVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...COLUMBIA...
COOKEVILLE...CROSSVILLE...DICKSON...DOVER...ERIN...FRANKLIN...
GAINSBORO...GALLATIN...HARTSVILLE...HOHENWALD...JAMESTOWN...
LAFAYETTE...LAWRENCEBURG...LEBANON...LEWISBURG...LINDEN...
LIVINGSTON...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...MONTEAGLE...MURFREESBORO...
NASHVILLE...PULASKI...SHELBYVILLE...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...SPENCER...
SPRINGFIELD...WAVERLY...WAYNESBORO...WOODBURY
314 PM CST MON DEC 4 2006

.NOW...
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER APPALACHIANS SWWD THROUGH
THE MIDSTATE INTO EAST TX. A COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO THE WEST ALONG
A LINE FROM THE OK PANHANDLE NWWD INTO A LOW IN THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE WRN US.

SFC RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNDOWN. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEARLY CLEAR WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE
TONIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MOS TENDENCY
TO UNDERESTIMATE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. ALSO...CHECKING THE
18Z MOS DEWPOINTS FOR BNA REVEALED THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSEST TO THE BNA OB WHILE THE ETA AND THE NGM GUIDANCE WAS SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO HIGH ON THEIR DEWPOINT FCST FOR 18Z TODAY. THUS I
DISREGARDED THE HIGHER NGM AND ETA GUIDANCE AND ALSO DROPPED THE
GFS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TO MOVE IN WED NGT BUT IT APPEARS TO BE A DRY
PASSAGE WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. SLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
ARE NOT BRINGING IN ANY SGFNT MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
THUS A DRY FCST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH A BIT STRONGER ANTECEDENT SLY FLOW.

MOS TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE LOOK FAIRLY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TONIGHT AS NOTED ABOVE.
$$

JLM



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