[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101932
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-102100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...KY...PARTS OF NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 101932Z - 102100Z

CONTINUE WW.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS SOUT/EAST OF WW 703.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...BASED IN VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING
EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  CONSOLIDATION OF
ACTIVITY INTO EXPANDING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH 20-22Z...AS FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS PROGRESSES ACROSS EVANSVILLE IND/OWENSBORO KY AREAS.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR MASS.  INTENSE RAIN RATES WITH
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY...ALONG WITH A FEW
WET MICROBURSTS.  A BROADER SCALE RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE COLD POOL...WHICH...AIDED BY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW...WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LEXINGTON/BOWLING GREEN/HOPKINSVILLE
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 08/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

38998780 38908740 38708639 38138471 36868511 36358779
36828894 37708832 38328834 38658826

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