[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081702
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-081830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NRN TN INTO SW VA...WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 081702Z - 081830Z

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING
OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 70F DEW POINTS...WHERE CAP HAS BECOME
SUPPRESSED BY WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING AROUND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...
PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WITH ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BRIEF/LOCALIZED IN NATURE...BUT DOWNBURSTS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH PEAK
HEATING...AHEAD OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

..KERR.. 08/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

37628603 37668512 37428389 36968240 36838033 35637995
34998144 35318348 35358523 35558686 35878801 36708825
37098746 37218662

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