[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301620
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-301745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE AR/WRN TN THRU PARTS OF SE MO/MO
BOOTHEEL...SRN IL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 301620Z - 301745Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

NARROW MOIST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS FAR NORTH AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  THIS IS
SUPPORTING WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT...INSTABILITY NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF
OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
 ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY CLOSED LOW.  COOLING ALOFT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...COULD YIELD MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.  WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REDUCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SOME...BUT MODERATELY
STRONG CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

..KERR.. 04/30/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

37338986 37928945 38328889 38018828 37138806 36238861
35498907 35098967 35119042

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