[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211717
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-211845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL...ERN TN...NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211717Z - 211845Z

SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING.  THIS
SHOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

INITIAL SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY.  50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK SEEMS
TO BE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...AND MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME MAY BECOME
FOCUS FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE 19-20Z TIME
FRAME.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA IS DEEPENING WITH INSOLATION.  AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE LOWER 80S...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION.  LARGE HAIL MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 04/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

34998618 35658598 36368452 36338366 35578355 35378371
34358429 33538489 32768617 32358731 32538818 33158816
34138711

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