[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 080405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080405
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-080600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN / WRN AND CNTRL KY / FAR NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...

VALID 080405Z - 080600Z

LATEST DATA SHOW COMPLEX SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ATTM
OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW ACROSS ERN AR IS
INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO SEWD ACCELERATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF
WRN AR UPPER VORT.  SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXTEND GENERALLY ENE FROM THE
LOW...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FOR SEVERE PURPOSES NOW
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME SRN KY.

CONTINUED E/SE MOTION OF AR VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
COOLING/ASCENT SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN FAR SRN KY/NW TN.
OTHERS MAY ALSO FORM SOMEWHAT LATER SWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO WRN
TN.

AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND OTHER MODES OF SUSTAINED STORMS.  THE PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AT LOWER LEVELS...THE
OBSERVED DATA AS WELL AS MODEL FORECAST WINDS SHOW EVIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE MODIFICATION AND BACK-VEER PATTERNS WITH HEIGHT.  THESE
TENDENCIES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN WW 170...ESPECIALLY IN SW TN
AND NW MS.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT...A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 04/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

36469030 35229040 33999025 34728802 35748515 37078497
38268533

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