[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071407
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...SERN MO...WRN KY AND SRN IL...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 071407Z - 071600Z

PARTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

EARLY THIS MORNING A LONE ELEVATED STORM CONTINUES ACROSS WRN TN.
THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OTHER
CLOUDS ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER STRATUS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A
MORE CONVECTIVE CHARACTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS
OF THE TN VALLEY. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOW STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT EWD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT.
MORNING ACARS AND RAOB DATA ALSO INDICATE A WEAK CAP REMAINING AND
SUGGEST ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRYSLOT MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM MS NWD THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO AND WRN KY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE CAP WEAKENS
AND AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NATURE
OF THE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 04/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

36838661 35278727 34128880 34349176 37778961 38158759

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