[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252305
ALZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CNTRL AND NRN AL THROUGH S CNTRL TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 819...820...

VALID 252305Z - 260000Z

TORNADO WATCHES 819 AND 820 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO
WATCH BEFORE 00Z. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING FROM PARTS OF ERN MS INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND
NRN AL AND POSSIBLY A PART OF S CNTRL TN.

EARLY THIS EVENING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF RITA WAS OVER
EXTREME NERN ARK MOVING NEWD. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG 40+ KT SLY LOW
LEVEL JET CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ERN MS INTO CNTRL AND NRN AL NWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE BEST COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL
AL THIS EVENING WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. INSTABILITY
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO TN WHERE HEATING
HAS BEEN LIMITED AND WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD GA WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

33128576 32328632 31848708 31638808 31658981 32399009
33418900 34328825 35578739 35888675 35648585 34628554

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