[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211856
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NERN AL AND NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211856Z - 212100Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AND CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FROM ERN TN SSWWD TROUGH NERN AL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...FORCING DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AL. UNIDIRECTIONAL
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
OVERALL THREAT AND PARTICULARLY THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

36298301 35248442 34358496 33958545 34218604 34958557
35988516 36428462

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