[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151204
ILZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-151400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NERN TX/SRN MO/AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151204Z - 151400Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER. NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 15/14Z...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN THIS WW AREA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS
ERN OK/N TX ATTM...S OF SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED IN FAR NERN OK.
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FAR SRN MO INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND
N OF THIS FRONT.

WITHIN WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S/ EXISTS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MO WITH TIME AS
WARM FRONT RETREATS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW.  RAOBS FROM 15/06Z
WITHIN WW AREA SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER FAR ERN OK.

ALL DATA -- FROM PROFILERS/VWPS TO RAOBS TO MODEL FORECASTS --
REVEAL WIND PROFILES FEATURING INCREASINGLY-STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INITIATING STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR
INVOF COLD FRONT...EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS/SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ADDITIONALLY...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT
OTHER BANDS OF MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW
POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT -- MAY BE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED
WITHIN THESE PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN AR/SERN MO
FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY ONWARD.

THOUGH INITIAL WATCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING E OF THE MS RIVER...LIKELY REQUIRING
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES FROM MS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32989205 32919627 34369552 37119452 38099093 37828957
35019021



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