[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150256
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN
KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 150256Z - 150530Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM
SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WATCHES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING IN
AN EXTENSIVE BAND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY. STORMS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SUB-SEVERE POSSIBLY DUE TO
MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACT ON A WARM/MOIST AIR
MASS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS INCREASING
FROM OK ENEWD TO WRN KY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOSTLY NORTH OF WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR HAIL.
CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL...MAY INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34569377 34129549 35889648 36599392 38168871 38668655
36988700 35699093

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